Matthew S. Clement, Nathan A. Kaib, Andre Izidoro, Rogerio Deienno

It is thought that, sometime after their formation, the solar system's giant planets experienced a dynamical instability that caused their orbits to excite, diverge, and ejected one or more objects with masses comparable to the ice giants. A key feature of this model is that the planets experience encounters with other planetary bodies, and these encounters facilitate the capture of nearby small bodies as irregular satellites. Instability simulations indicate that planet-planet encounter distances can typically fall below 0.1 au, which is only roughly an order of magnitude larger than the radial extent of the modern planets' regular satellite systems. In this paper we model the effects of these encounters on the dynamical stability of the regular moons of Jupiter and Uranus. We tested encounter histories from 122 plausible outer solar system dynamical histories. We find that the survival probability for the Jovian and Uranian moon systems are both less than 15%. Moreover, we only identify one case where both Uranus and Jupiter's large satellites consistently survive the same instability. Interestingly, Jupiter's moons are most likely to survive in instabilities initialized with two smaller extra ice giants, and cases with one larger additional planet provide more favorable conditions for Uranian system survival. In either case, if Uranus encounters another ice giant at D<0.02 au, or one of the gas giants at D<0.1 au, satellite system destruction is effectively guaranteed. Wider encounters can also affect the system, particularly when they occur successively. Since the Laplace resonance likely would not be in place today if Jupiter's moons experienced an instability that led to collisions, our results indicate that Uranus' moons were likely perturbed to the point of collisions at least twice: as a result of both the impact that tilted the planet and the giant planet instability.