Pipins, S.; Bohm, M.; Bland, L.; Crandall, K. A.; Hossain, M. A.; Rosindell, J.; Gumbs, R.

Crayfish are an ancient clade of freshwater decapods that play vital and diverse ecological roles in the freshwater systems that they inhabit. One third of assessed crayfish species are threatened with extinction and 87% are highly sensitive to climate change. However, the extent to which the evolutionary history of crayfish is threatened, especially by climate change, remains unclear. To address this, we produced a phylogenetically-informed species prioritisation for the conservation of crayfish and explored the consequences of projected climate change scenarios on crayfish phylogenetic diversity. We used the EDGE2 metric to highlight 70 priority species for conservation. Their combined threatened evolutionary history accounts for 40.7% of the expected phylogenetic diversity loss for all 673 crayfish. Of these priority species, 45.7% are vulnerable to climate change, with the majority (32 species) located in Australia. Under a high warming scenario, individual species that are more evolutionarily distinct are projected to be disproportionately affected. The extinction of climate change vulnerable species could cause the loss of up to 26.3% more phylogenetic diversity than the random expectation, equivalent to 409 million years of evolutionary history. Our results highlight the need to consider climate change effects on phylogenetic diversity to fully understand its impact on biodiversity. If actions were taken to avoid a worst-case warming scenario in favour of an intermediate scenario, we could safeguard 251 million years of unique crayfish evolutionary history.